Vice President Kamala Harris speaking at an event (The White House)
Nate Silver, the famed statistician and founder of the political predictions and observations website FiveThirtyEight, is now saying that Vice President Kamala Harris is in a strong position to defeat former President Donald Trump in the upcoming US presidential election. This after he painted a grim picture of President Joe Biden’s chances of winning reelection before the President dropped out of the race.
Nate Silver’s polls show that Kamala Harris has gained on Donald Trump since President Biden announced he was dropping out of the race two weeks ago. And that is the least of it: Not only does Harris have a paper thin lead nationally over Trump, but she is also leading by the slimmest of margins in the three most important battleground states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. These are the states that cost Hilary Clinton the election against Trump in 2016, losing in them by mere thousands of votes while beating Trump nationally by millions.
In addition, Kamala Harris is trailing by just one percentage point in states like Arizona and Georgia. These are two formerly solidly Republican states that Joe Biden carried by narrow margins in 2020.
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The current wild card in this election is the independent candidate Joe Kennedy III. He is getting about 5% of the vote in the polls in several swing states where he could play the spooler either way.
The biggest question now is “Who will Kamala Harris pick as her running mate?” One frontrunner for the VP nod is Pennsylvania Governor Joshua Shapiro. Pennsylvania is currently listed as a tossup in the 2020 elections and its governor could also help Harris regionally in Illinois and Wisconsin.
On why he recommends that Kamala Harris pick Governor Joshua Shapiro as her running mate, Nate Silver said, “Why Shapiro? What’s the positive case? Well, Shapiro is the extremely popular governor of what is by far the most important swing state. He’s highly charismatic and he’s qualified. He seems to want the job. This is about as obvious as things get in politics. You need a good reason to not pick Shapiro — and as I’ll cover here, the arguments against Shapiro are pretty bad.”
Nate Silver is an American statistician, writer, and poker player who analyzes baseball, basketball, and elections. He is best known for founding the website FiveThirtyEight, which uses statistical analysis to predict outcomes in various fields.
Silver gained national attention for his accurate predictions of the 2008 and 2012 U.S. presidential elections. He has also written several books on baseball statistics and the application of statistics to other fields.
In addition to his work at FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver is also a co-founder of the data journalism website The Upshot.
