Israel has been accused of committing war crimes in Gaza due to the over-inflated numbers of civilian casualties that have been reported there since the start of the Iron Swords war against the Hamas terrorist organization based there. However, few people seem to question the validity of the reported civilian casualty rates nor do they ask who is providing the data. Well, according to a report issued by the British think tank the Henry Jackson Society, the figures not only come from a Hamas-controlled organization, they also include large numbers of Hamas terrorists who were killed by the Israeli military.
The figures from the Gaza Ministry of Health (MoH) have been widely cited by major news organizations throughout the conflict. For example, an April 2024 headline in The Observer read, “Gaza death toll passes 34,000 as Israel and Iran missile strikes grab global attention.” In August 2024, when the toll surpassed 40,000, it became the focal point of much of the BBC News coverage, as documented by the Cohen report in September 2024.
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A group of international scholars working for the Henry Jackson Society analyzed the reporting of these figures, studying 1,378 articles from major English-language newspapers and media outlets, including The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Guardian, CNN, the BBC, Reuters, The Associated Press, and the Australian ABC, from February 2024 through May 2024.
Over this four-month period, 84% of these publications failed to distinguish between combatant and civilian deaths in their reporting of total fatalities. Only 5% of the media outlets cited figures from Israeli authorities, while 98% referenced fatality numbers from the Hamas-run Gaza Ministry of Health.
An analysis of fatality data from the Gaza Ministry of Health (MoH) has identified recurring instances of men being incorrectly classified as women. For instance, individuals with male first names, such as Mohammed, are listed as female. This misclassification supports the narrative that civilian populations, especially women and children, suffer most from the conflict, which could sway international opinion and media coverage, said the Henry Jackson Society.
The report found “significant discrepancies” in which adult fatalities are incorrectly classified as children. For example, a 22-year-old was listed as a four-year-old, and a 31-year-old was recorded as an infant. These errors artificially inflate the number of child casualties, which is emotionally charged and widely highlighted in global media coverage. Such misrepresentations appear to intentionally portray the conflict as disproportionately impacting children, thereby undermining the credibility of the fatality data.
Data analysis reveals that the majority of fatalities are men aged 15-45, challenging claims that civilian populations are being disproportionately targeted. This age group closely matches the typical profile of combatants, with an additional indication from spikes in deaths reported by family members rather than hospitals. The Henry Jackson Society said this suggests that many fatalities labeled as civilian may, in fact, be combatants, a distinction that is not reflected in official reports.
Despite the typical annual rate of 5,000 natural deaths in Gaza, the fatality data fails to account for these figures. This omission raises concerns that natural deaths, as well as those caused by internal violence or misfired rockets, are being included in the war-related fatality count. Cases of cancer patients, who were previously registered for treatment, appearing on war fatality lists further support this claim. Such practices artificially inflate the reported civilian death toll, making it more difficult to accurately assess the true impact of the conflict.
The Henry Jackson Society is a think-tank and policy-shaping force that fights for the principles and alliances which keep societies free, working across borders and party lines to combat extremism, advance democracy and real human rights, and make a stand in an increasingly uncertain world.
The Centre for New Middle East is a one-stop shop designed to provide opinion-leaders and policy-makers with the fresh thinking, analytical research and policy solutions required to make geopolitical progress in one of the world’s most complicated and fluid regions.
Established following the fallout from the Arab Spring, the Centre is dedicated to monitoring political, ideological, and military and security developments across the Middle East and providing informed assessments of their wide-ranging implications to key decision makers.
