A McGill-led study reveals a surprising twist in the Antarctic ice story. Earth’s natural processes could significantly slow down Antarctica’s contribution to rising sea levels, but only if we drastically curb carbon emissions soon. However, if greenhouse gas emissions continue unchecked, the continent’s ice loss could far exceed previous projections, leading to more severe sea level rise.
The researchers said their finding is significant because the Antarctic Ice Sheet is the largest ice mass on Earth, and the biggest uncertainty in predicting future sea levels is how this ice will respond to climate change.
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“With nearly 700 million people living in coastal areas and the potential cost of sea-level rise reaching trillions of dollars by the end of the century, understanding the domino effect of Antarctic ice melt is crucial,” said lead author Natalya Gomez, an Associate Professor in McGill’s Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences and Canada Research Chair in Ice sheet – Sea level interactions.
The study focuses on how the ice sheet interacts with the earth beneath, and how that dynamic is influenced by carbon-emission levels. This relationship has not been thoroughly explored in previous studies, the researchers said.
“Our findings show that while some sea level rise is inevitable, swift and substantive action to lower emissions could prevent some of the most destructive impacts of climate change, particularly for coastal communities,” Gomez said.
To reach their findings, Gomez and collaborating scholars from Canada and the United States developed a 3-D model of Earth’s interior. Their model used geophysical field measurements from the U.S. ANET-POLENET project, which had pioneered large-scale deployments of sensitive instruments to record the bedrock uplift and seismic signals across large expanses of Antarctica. These extensive field measurements were essential for characterizing the three-dimensional variations of the Antarctic mantle incorporated in the study.
“Our 3-D model peels back Earth’s layers like an onion, revealing dramatic variations in thickness and consistency of the mantle below. This knowledge helps us better predict how different areas will respond to melting,” said co-author Maryam Yousefi, a geodesist at Natural Resources Canada and previously a Postdoctoral Fellow at McGill and Penn State universities.
The Antarctic Ice Sheet is an immense body of ice covering nearly the entire continent of Antarctica. It’s the largest ice mass on Earth, holding around 90% of the world’s total ice and a staggering 70% of its freshwater. Roughly the size of the United States, it covers about 14 million square kilometers. On average, the ice is over 2 kilometers thick, with some areas reaching depths of nearly 5 kilometers. If the entire ice sheet were to melt, global sea levels would rise by about 70 meters.
The Antarctic Ice Sheet plays a crucial role in Earth’s climate system. Its massive size influences global weather patterns and ocean currents. However, it’s facing significant threats due to climate change. Rising temperatures are causing the ice sheet to melt at an accelerated rate, contributing to sea level rise and impacting coastal communities worldwide
