
The map shows population shifts from the south-western to the north-eastern Europe during the last cold phase of the Ice Age.
Credit: Isabell Schamidt, University of Cologne
A groundbreaking new study published in PLOS One offers fresh insights into how European prehistoric hunter-gatherer populations adapted to climate change over 12,000 years ago. Led by researchers from the University of Cologne, the international team of 25 archaeologists from 20 European institutions explored population trends during the Final Palaeolithic period, spanning 14,000 to 11,600 years ago—an era marked by dramatic environmental shifts at the end of the last Ice Age.
Titled “Large-Scale and Regional Demographic Responses to Climatic Changes in Europe During the Final Palaeolithic,” the study used archaeological and environmental data to track major fluctuations in population size and density across Europe.
The research reveals that during the early stages of the Final Palaeolithic, north-eastern central Europe saw a rise in human settlement, suggesting the formation of larger and more stable populations. However, this growth was abruptly reversed during the Greenland Stadial 1, the final cold snap of the Ice Age, leading to a population collapse that halved Europe’s inhabitants.
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Despite the overall decline, the study found that prehistoric regions in central Europe exhibited relative demographic stability or even modest growth. Scientists interpret this anomaly as evidence of climate-driven migration, with prehistoric groups likely relocating eastward to escape deteriorating conditions.
This research provides important context for understanding how early humans responded to rapid climate fluctuations, offering valuable lessons as modern societies face growing environmental challenges. The study also highlights the resilience and adaptability of prehistoric populations in the face of ecological upheaval.
By compiling a comprehensive database on archaeological sites from this prehistoric period and using a cutting-edge geostatistical method called the Cologne Protocol, the researchers estimated population sizes and densities of prehistoric humans across different regions of Europe. The protocol provides a standardised procedure to estimate prehistoric demographic data, allowing for diachronic comparisons. The identified shifts in regional population sizes provide new insights into how early humans responded to the environmental challenges of their time.
The study focuses on two key prehistoric periods: Greenland Interstadial 1d-a (GI-1d-a) and Greenland Stadial 1 (GS-1). During GI-1d-a, a warmer period of the Final Palaeolithic, humans continued to repopulate and expand into northern and north-eastern central Europe, making this region the centre of demographic dynamics in Europe for the first time in prehistory. Populations in south-western Europe, particularly in Spain and France, began to decline compared to population estimates for the preceding periods of the Upper Palaeolithic.
