The Vanderford ice front, part of Aurora Subglacial Basin. (Photo credit: Dr. Felicity McCormack, SAEF/Monash University)
In a groundbreaking study, researchers have unveiled new insights into the long-term evolution of subglacial rivers—waterways flowing beneath Antarctica’s ice sheets. Their findings could reshape climate models and change how scientists predict the impacts of global warming.
A team from the University of Waterloo’s Faculty of Environment studied the Aurora Subglacial Basin, modeling its subglacial hydrology—the flow of water beneath the ice—over a vast timeline. They analyzed drainage patterns from 34 million years ago to projections 75 years into the future.
Key Findings: The Unstable Future of Antarctica’s Ice
Subglacial rivers are highly dynamic, shifting significantly over time.
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The Aurora Subglacial Basin, located in East Antarctica, sits below sea level, making it particularly vulnerable to rapid and irreversible ice retreat.
If all the ice in the region were to melt, global sea levels could rise by four meters, drastically impacting coastal cities worldwide.
These findings highlight the urgent need for improved climate models that account for the evolving subglacial hydrology beneath Antarctica’s ice sheets. With climate change accelerating ice melt, understanding how these hidden rivers behave could be crucial in predicting future sea level rise.
As Antarctica’s ice stability becomes increasingly uncertain, this research underscores the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and preparing for rising sea levels.
“Many studies say the past is an analogue of what might happen in the future. But if we don’t now consider subglacial rivers, we’re missing out on a critical part of the picture,” said Anna-Mireilla Hayden, a PhD candidate and the first author of the study. “It’s important that scientists who model ice sheets account for hydrology because it could reduce uncertainty in estimates of sea level rise.”
The research revealed that the water pathways beneath glaciers have relocated and will continue to shift in the future. Changes in where the river drains into the ocean can impact water circulation beneath floating ice and enhance weaknesses in the vulnerable regions where ice flows from the land into the ocean. It could cause the ice to break off and contribute to even faster ice flow and greater increase in the rise of the world’s oceans than previously suggested.
“It’s critical that projections of sea level rise include as much relevant information as possible so that the world can take appropriate measures to lessen the devastation to global coastal communities,” said Dr. Christine Dow, professor in the Faculty of Environment and Canada Research Chair in Glacial Hydrology and Ice Dynamics. “While we do not directly predict the amount seas will rise in this study, our analysis over extensive time periods of history illustrates that the influence of these subglacial rivers is both significant and highly changeable over time. The role of subglacial water in ice dynamics must be part of the conversation, or else we don’t have the full picture.”
The Aurora Subglacial Basin is a large subglacial basin located in Wilkes Land, East Antarctica. It is situated to the west of Dome Charlie and trends northwest towards the coast in the vicinity of the Shackleton Ice Shelf. The basin is largely grounded below sea level, making it susceptible to marine ice sheet instability.
The Aurora Subglacial Basin is a critical area for understanding the potential future contributions of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to global sea level rise. The ongoing changes in the region, particularly the retreat of Totten Glacier, are a cause for concern and highlight the need for further research on the basin’s dynamics and its response to climate change.
