A new study led by the Global Research on Antimicrobial Resistance (GRAM) included a comprehensive analysis of global health impacts of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) from 1990 to 2021 reveals troubling trends and forecasts for 204 countries and territories. Over a million people died annually from AMR between 1990 and 2021, with a 50% decline in deaths among children under five but an over 80% increase in those aged 70 and older.
The new study by the GRAM Project is the first global analysis of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) trends over time.
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Projections indicate a steady rise in AMR deaths, reaching nearly 70% higher by 2050 compared to 2022, primarily affecting older populations. Improved healthcare and antibiotic access could potentially save 92 million lives between 2025 and 2050. These findings underscore the urgent need for decisive action, including enhanced healthcare, expanded prevention and control measures, and the development of new antibiotics to combat the growing threat of AMR.
More than 39 million people around the world could die from antibiotic-resistant infections over the next 25 years, according to a study published in The Lancet.
The study also estimates that 1.91 million people could potentially die as a direct result of AMR in 2050, an increase of almost 70% per year compared to 2022. Over the same period, the number of deaths in which AMR bacteria play a role will increase by almost 75% from 4.71 million to 8.22 million per year.
“Antimicrobial medicines are one of the cornerstones of modern healthcare, and increasing resistance to them is a major cause for concern. These findings highlight that AMR has been a significant global health threat for decades and that this threat is growing. Understanding how trends in AMR deaths have changed over time, and how they are likely to shift in the future, is vital to make informed decisions to help save lives,” said study author Dr Mohsen Naghavi, Team Leader of the AMR Research Team at the Institute of Health Metrics (IHME), University of Washington, USA.
Estimates for the new GRAM study were produced for 22 pathogens, 84 pathogen-drug combinations, and 11 infectious syndromes (including meningitis, bloodstream infections, and other infections) among people of all ages in 204 countries and territories. The estimates were based on 520 million individual records from a wide range of sources, including hospital data, death records, and antibiotic use data.
Statistical modeling was used to produce estimates of deaths directly from AMR and those in which AMR played a role. Based on the historical trends calculated, the authors estimate the most likely global and regional health impacts of AMR from 2022 until 2050. Estimates were also produced for scenarios in which healthcare quality and access to antibiotics improve in the future and drug development targets Gram-negative bacteria.
