Published On: Mon, Dec 12th, 2016

Nate Silver Says Hillary Clinton Would Have Won If Comey Had Not Released Letter

"I'll put it like this: Clinton would almost certainly be President-elect if the election had been held on Oct. 27 (day before Comey letter)."


Nate Silver has given Hillary Clinton’s supporters an explanation of why she lost, reaffirming what they already believed: FBI Director James Comey’s 11th hour letter to Congress revealing an investigation into how Anthony Weiner’s computer may have had classified e mails on it threw the election to Donald Trump.

This, however, offers little comfort to Hillary Clinton’s supporters who are still licking their wounds. Nate Silver made the comments on Twitter.

Just ten days before the election, Hillary Clinton plummeted in the polls and lost her lead in several battle ground states such as Florida after the Comey revelation that the whole Clinton private e mail server mess was still alive since her senior aid Huma Abedin’s estranged husband Anthony Weiner’s computer was found to have somehow had Clinton e mails on it. Comey said that the FBI was investigating whether these e mails were different from the ones already reviewed in the past. After this news was made public, Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight showed the likelihood of a Clinton victory plummet from around 90 percent down to the low sixties.

A week later Comey announced that nothing new or incriminating was found on Weiner’s computer and Clinton rose slightly in the polls. But the damage was done.

Silver and his FiveThirtyEight are known for accurately predicting the results of all sorts of events from politic to sports. And Nate Silver really made a name for himself when he got almost everything right as per the outcome of the 2012 Presidential elections, down to the local level. But he has been mocked since this year’s elections ended because he was still predicting a Clinton win in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, three Democratic strongholds whose switch to Trump made the difference in the election.


The graph below was posted by Nate Silver on Twitter to show that if the election had been held on October 27, Hillary Clinton would have won.

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