Nate Sliver Dismisses “Blue Wall”, 2016 Presidential Race Wide Open
Noted electoral statistician and founder of FiveThirtyEight, Nathaniel “Nate” Silver, has dismissed the notion that there is a “Blue Wall”, a block of 18 -20 states firmly in the grip of Democratic Party, influencing any future presidential election outcome. Some political pundits argue that a “Blue Wall” has been emerging in recent electoral cycles, securing at least 242 electoral votes for the Democratic Party – virtually destroying the possibility of any future republican victory.
Nate Silver, a successful sports analyst who gained public recognition after accurately predicting the 2008 presidential election, rejected the notion of a “Blue Wall” being propagated by many political analysts.
According to Sliver, the concept of a “Blue Wall” is just as unreliable and misleading as the earlier belief in a “Red Wall”, popular among political commentators in the 1980s, denoting most of the states along the West Coast as well as few traditionally republican states. In 1992, Bill Clinton broke this myth by winning in nine of those republican “lock” states.
In his recent column in FiveThirtyEight, Silver argues that many political pundits are misreading recent democratic electoral successes. Many of the Democratic successes in recent state-level Electoral Colleges have been marginal. He cites Barack Obama’s impressive victory in Electoral College votes in 2012 presidential election – 332 electoral votes, compared to Mitt Romney’s 206 – although Obama had managed to win the popular vote only by few percentage points.
According to Sliver, the presidential race for 2016 is wide open for candidates of both the parties and the much mooted “Blue Wall” would not automatically secure an outright victory for Hillary Clinton or any other democratic candidate.
Read more about: Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, Democratic Party, Electoral College, FiveThirtyEight, Hillary Clinton, Nate Silver, Noted electoral statistician, politics, Politics of the United States, presidential election, presidential race, sports analyst, United States, United States presidential electionAbout the Author
States’ partisanship is hardening.
Analysts already say that only the
2016 party winner of Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, Colorado,
Iowa and New Hampshire is not a foregone conclusion. So less
than a handful of states will continue to dominate and determine the
presidential general election.
If Republicans lose either Florida (29 electoral
votes) or Ohio (18), the candidate has no realistic path to victory.
Over the last few decades,
presidential election outcomes within the majority of states have become more
and more predictable. Only ten states
were considered competitive in the 2012 election.
From 1992-
2012
13 states
(with 102) voted Republican every time
19
states (with 242) voted Democratic every time
If this
pattern continues,
Democrats only
would need a mere 28 electoral votes from other states.
If Republicans lose Florida (29), they would lose.
Some states have not been been competitive for more than a
half-century and most states now have a degree of partisan imbalance that makes
them highly unlikely to be in a swing state position.
· 41 States Won by Same Party, 2000-2012
· 32 States Won by Same Party, 1992-2012
· 13 States Won Only by Republican Party,
1980-2012
· 19 States Won Only by Democratic Party, 1992-2012
· 7 Democratic States Not Swing State since
1988
· 16 GOP States Not
Swing State since 1988States’ partisanship is hardening.
Presidential elections don’t have
to continue to be dominated by and determined by a handful of swing states
besieged with attention, while most of the country is politically irrelevant.
The National Popular Vote
bill would guarantee the presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular
votes in the country.
Every vote, everywhere, would be politically relevant
and equal in every presidential election. No more distorting and divisive red
and blue state maps of pre-determined outcomes. There would no longer be a
handful of ‘battleground’ states where voters and policies are more important
than those of the voters in 80%+ of the states that have just been ‘spectators’
and ignored after the conventions.
The bill would take effect when
enacted by states with a majority of Electoral College votes—that is, enough to
elect a President (270 of 538). The candidate receiving the most popular votes
from all 50 states (and DC) would get all the 270+ electoral votes of the
enacting states, and win.
The bill has passed 33 state legislative chambers in
22 rural, small, medium, large, red, blue, and purple states with 250 electoral
votes. The bill has been enacted by 11 jurisdictions with 165 electoral votes –
61% of the 270 necessary to go into effect.
NationalPopularVote