According to the research, in a worst-case scenario, the death toll could reach a catastrophic 68 million around the world.
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The study by researchers Warwick McKibbon and Roshen Fernando, warns that “even a contained outbreak could significantly impact the global economy in the short run”.
The global death rate currently hovering around 3.4 percent. However, the study says China and India would each lose more than 12 million people, with 1.1 million deaths in the United States. Britain could lose 290,000 people, similar to Germany and France. South Korea and Italy, which have suffered widespread outbreaks, would also be bracing for tens of thousands of deaths, the study says.
In this worst-case pandemic, the global economy would face deep recessions of $9.2 trillion. Some countries’ economies would shrink by eight percent in the global meltdown.
Britain would lose at least $5 billion in the first year of the COVID-19 outbreak. Britain’s GDP would drop by around 1.5 percent while the economy would shrink by 6 percent, a far worse outcome than the 4.2 percent drop in the economy caused by the global financial crisis in 2009. America’s economy shrinking by 2.0 percent.
Researchers mark out that their projected outcomes are “highly uncertain”. They write: “The goal is not to be definitive about the virus outbreak but to provide important information about a range of possible economic costs of the disease.”