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Nate Silver: Republicans Have Slight Chance of Retaking Senate


If you’re not an Obama fan, and looking for ways to curb the president in his campaign to bring eternal peace and democracy to the Middle East (putting it politely), you may be delighted to discover that much of this could be stopped come November.

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Pollster / statistical genius Nate Silver, who guessed correctly the way all 50 states voted in the 2012 presidential election, says the Senate is more likely to go Republican than to stay Democrat.

“The problem for Democrats is that this year’s Senate races aren’t being fought in neutral territory, ” writes Silver. Instead, he thinks senators whose terms of service expire in 2015 (known affectionately as the Class II senators) “come from states that gave Obama an average of just 46 percent of the vote in 2012.”

There are 20 Democrats facing reelection in November, compared with only 13 Republicans. And some of those Democrats come from Arkansas, North Carolina and Virginia, where the president is not very popular.

It shouldn’t be surprising, Silver predicts, albeit cautiously, “that we continue to see Republicans as slightly more likely than not to win a net of six seats this November and control of the Senate.”

This may not be a “wave” election as 2010 was, Silver contends, “but Republicans don’t need a wave to take over the Senate.”

According to Silver, the 2015 Senate will be split 49.1 Democrats, 50.9 Republicans.



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